Influencia de El Niño en el País Vasco
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30859/ameJrCn35p368Resumen
La región norte de la Península Ibérica aparece como un área de transición en la teleconexión de El Niño con la variabilidad climática en Europa (López-Parages and Rodríguez-Fonseca 2012) y ha sido ,por tanto, poco estudiada. Este trabajo se centra en el análisis de la temperatura máxima (Tmax), mínima (Tmin) y la precipitación (Rf) en dicha región, así como de la influencia de ENSO en su variabilidad.
Los principales resultados de este estudio muestran correlación estadísticamente significativa entre todas las variables analizadas (Tmax, Tmin y Rf) y los diferentes índices de El Niño, en prácticamente todas las estaciones del año y en diferentes periodos (Fig. 1). Es el verano (julio, agosto septiembre, JAS) la estación en la que las correlaciones parecen ser más elevadas (superiores a 0.5) en los primeros años de estudio en el caso de las Tmax y las Tmin, mientras que en el caso de la Rf el periodo de años con correlación elevada abarca prácticamente todo el de estudio.
Citas
Barnston, A. G., Livezey, R. E., & Halpert, M. S. (1991). Modulation of Southern Oscillation-Northern Hemisphere Mid-Winter Climate Relationships by the QBO. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0203:MOSONH>2.0.CO;2
Bergman, K. H. (1984). The climate of autumn 1983--featuring the conclusion of a major El Niño event. Monthly weather review.
Biau, G., Zorita, E., Von Storch, H., & Wackernagel, H. (1999). Estimation of precipitation by kriging in the EOF space of the sea level pressure field. Journal of Climate, 12(4), 1070–1085. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1070:EOPBKI>2.0.CO;2
Branstator, G. (2002). Circumglobal teleconnections, the jet stream waveguide, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 15(14), 1893–1910. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1893:CTTJSW>2.0.CO;2
Brönnimann, S. (2007). Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on European climate. Rev. Geophys., 45(3), RG3003–. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000199.1.INTRODUCTION
Bulić, I. H., & Kucharski, F. (2012). Delayed ENSO impact on spring precipitation over North/Atlantic European region. Climate Dynamics, 38(11-12), 2593–2612. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1151-9
Capa-Morocho, M., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., & Ruiz-Ramos, M. (2014). Crop yield as a bioclimatic index of El Niño impact in Europe: Crop forecast implications. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 198-199, 42–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.07.012
Cassou, C., & Terray, L. (2001). Oceanic forcing of the wintertime low-frequency atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic European Sector: A study with the ARPEGE model. Journal of Climate, 14(22), 4266–4291. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4266:OFOTWL>2.0.CO;2
Davies, J. R., Rowell, D. P., & Folland, C. K. (1997). North Atlantic and European seasonal predictability using an ensemble of multidecadal atmospheric GCM simulations. International Journal of …, 17, 1263–1284. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199710)17:12<1263::AID-JOC191>3.0.CO;2-1
Ding, Q., & Wang, B. (2005). Circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Journal of Climate, 18(17), 3483–3505. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3473.1
Ding, Q., Wang, B., Wallace, J. M., & Branstator, G. (2011). Tropical-extratropical teleconnections in boreal summer: Observed interannual variability. Journal of Climate, 24(7), 1878–1896. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3621.1
Dommenget, D., Bayr, T., & Frauen, C. (2013). Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño southern oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 40(11-12), 2825–2847. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1475-0
Fraedrich, K. (1994). An ENSO impact on Europe? Tellus A. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.00015.x
Gill, A. E. (1980). Some simple solutions for heat induced tropical circulation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905
Gouirand, I., & Moron, V. (2003). Variability of the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation of sea-level pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic in January to March (1874-1996). International Journal of Climatology, 23(13), 1549–1566. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.963
Hannachi, A. (2001). Toward a nonlinear identification of the atmospheric response to ENSO. Journal of Climate, 14(9), 2138–2149. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2138:TANIOT>2.0.CO;2
Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., Ancell, R., Pons, M. R., Frías, M. D., & Fernández, J. (2012). Development and analysis of a 50-year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02). International Journal of Climatology, 32(1), 74–85. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2256
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., … Joseph, D. (1996). The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
Kiladis, G. N., & Diaz, H. F. (1989). Global Climatic Anomalies Associated with Extremes in the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1069:GCAAWE>2.0.CO;2
López-Parages, J., & Rodríguez-Fonseca, B. (2012). Multidecadal modulation of El Niño influence on the Euro-Mediterranean rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(2), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050049
López-Parages, J., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Dommenget, D., & Frauen, C. (2016). ENSO influence on the North Atlantic European climate: a non-linear and non-stationary approach. Climate Dynamics, 47(7-8), 2071–2084. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2951-0
López-Parages, J., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., & Terray, L. (2015). A mechanism for the multidecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnection with Europe. Climate Dynamics, 45(3-4), 867–880. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2319-x
Mathieu, P. P., Sutton, R. T., Dong, B., & Collins, M. (2004). Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO events. Journal of Climate, 17(10), 1953–1974. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1953:POWCOT>2.0.CO;2
Mills, G. F. (1995). Principal Component Analysis of precipitation and rainfall regionalization in Spain. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 50(3-4), 169–183. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00866115
Mo, K. C., & Livezey, R. E. (1986). Tropical-Extratropical Geopotential Height Teleconnections during the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Monthly Weather Review. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<2488:TEGHTD>2.0.CO;2
Pozo-Vázquez, D., Esteban-Parra, M. J., Rodrigo, F. S., & Castro-Díez, Y. (2001). The Association between ENSO and Winter Atmospheric Circulation and Temperature in the North Atlantic Region. Journal of Climate, 14(16), 3408–3420. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3408:TABEAW>2.0.CO;2
Raible, C. C., Luksch, U., & Fraedrich, K. (2003). Precipitation and Northern Hemisphere regimes. Atmospheric Science Letters, 5(1-4), 43–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmoscilet.2003.12.001
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., & Rowell, D. P. (2003). Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670
Sáenz, J., Zubillaga, J., & Rodríguez-Puebla, C. (2001). Interannual winter temperature variability in the north of the Iberian Peninsula. Climate Research, 16(3), 169–179. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr016169
Serrano, A., García, J. A., Mateos, V. L., Cancillo, M. L., & Garrido, J. (1999). Monthly modes of variation of precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula. Journal of Climate, 12(9), 2894–2919. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2894:MMOVOP>2.0.CO;2
Stockdale, T. N., Anderson, D. L. T., Alves, J. O. S., & Balmaseda, M. A. (1998). Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean- atmosphere model. Nature.
Sutton, R. T., & Hodson, D. L. R. (2003). Influence of the ocean on North Atlantic climate variability 1871-1999. Journal of Climate, 16(20), 3296–3313. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3296:IOTOON>2.0.CO;2
Toniazzo, T., & Scaife, A. A. (2006). The influence of ENSO on winter North Atlantic climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(24), 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027881
Wu, A., & Hsieh, W. W. (2004a). The nonlinear association between ENSO and the Euro-Atlantic winter sea level pressure. Climate Dynamics, 23(7-8), 859–868. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0470-5
Wu, A., & Hsieh, W. W. (2004b). The nonlinear Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric response to ENSO. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(2), 2–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018885
Xoplaki, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Luterbacher, J., & Wanner, H. (2003a). Mediterranean summer air temperature variability and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation and SSTs. Climate Dynamics, 20(7-8), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0304-x
Xoplaki, E., González-Rouco, J., Gyalistras, D., Luterbacher, J., Rickli, R., & Wanner, H. (2003b). Interannual summer air temperature variability over Greece and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation and Mediterranean SSTs 1950–1999. Climate Dynamics, 20(5), 537–554. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0291-3
Yu, B., Zhang, X., Lin, H., & Yu, J. Y. (2015). Comparison of Wintertime North American Climate Impacts Associated with Multiple ENSO Indices. Atmosphere - Ocean, 53(4), 426–445. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2015.1079697
Zanchettin, D., Franks, S. W., Traverso, P., & Tomasino, M. (2008). On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi-decadal variability described through the PDO index. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1601
Zhang, L., Wang, C., & Wu, L. (2012). Low-frequency modulation of the Atlantic warm pool by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 39(7-8), 1661–1671. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1257-0
Zhang, W., Wang, Z., Stuecker, M. F., Turner, A. G., Jin, F.-F., & Geng, X. (2018). Impact of ENSO longitudinal position on teleconnections to the NAO. Climate Dynamics, 0(0), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4135-1
Zorita, E., Kharin, V., & Vonstorch, H. (1992). The Atmospheric Circulation and Sea-Surface Temperature in the North-Atlantic Area in Winter - Their Interaction and Relevance for Iberian Precipitation. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/Doi 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<1097:Tacass>2.0.Co;2
