Convective processes in high resolution models: Impact of the lead time of the simulation

Alvaro Lavin-Gullon, Jesus Fernandez, Rita M. Cardoso, Klaus Goergen, Sebastian Knist, Torge Lorenz, Josipa Milovac, Pedro M. M. Soares, Stefan Sobolowski, Heimo Truhetz, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi


Most heavy precipitation events occurring in the world are associated with convective processes. As these phenomena produce severe economic and societal impacts, it is crucial to get to know their behaviour and their evolution in a future climate. For this reason, the international project CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment) proposed the Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean, focused on the study of convection in Europe. In this initiative, multi-model and multi-physics results and uncertainties of regional climate models (RCMs) are explored by means of ensembles of simulations. In this work, we additionally explore the role of internal variability to explain the differences found in the results by different model configurations.

Palabras clave

internal variability; WRF; RCM; multi-physics; ensemble; The Alps; heavy precipitation; convection-permitting; uncertainty

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